This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

It was eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the side's wider issues.

On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, twice all season has the team posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened in London, and again against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• The winger could transform into the force he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.